January 2026 Economic Snapshot: Key Trends Shaping the Year Ahead

As we step into 2026, Dr. Marci Rossell’s latest economic insights paint a picture of a dynamic landscape influenced by key global events and emerging trends. From energy shifts to the rise of AI and changes in global trade, these factors are positioning our economy in new and exciting directions. For real estate professionals, the outlook is particularly promising with a stronger housing market emerging. Here’s a closer look at some of the most important trends for the year ahead:

1. Energy Dynamics: Global Tensions Still Present, but Impact is Muted
While geopolitical tensions continue to make headlines—think Venezuela, Iran, and other global hotspots—Dr. Rossell notes that energy shocks from these tensions no longer carry the same weight as in previous decades. Modernized oil production methods in the U.S. and a reduction in global oil intensity have diminished the widespread economic impact of high oil prices. Since the 1970s, global GDP has quadrupled, while oil demand has only doubled. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil demand will peak between 2030 and 2050, signaling a future decline. The result? A more complex, energy landscape where oil’s influence is reduced, and its effects are more sector-specific.

2. AI Growth and Its Impact on the Job Market
Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence are pushing the limits of our energy infrastructure, particularly in regions with historically low-cost power. This demand is causing electricity prices to rise, prompting debates about whether tech companies should help fund grid upgrades. Despite fears of widespread job losses, Dr. Rossell assures that AI will likely enhance productivity rather than replace jobs—especially in white-collar sectors. AI will automate certain tasks but is expected to work in tandem with human workers to increase efficiency. The true divide is not AI vs. people; it’s those who embrace AI versus those who don’t.

3. Federal Reserve Leadership Change: What Does It Mean?
Changes in leadership at the Federal Reserve have caused some uncertainty, but Dr. Rossell emphasizes that the structure of U.S. monetary policy remains stable. The Fed’s 12-member committee, not just its chair, drives critical rate decisions, ensuring the central bank’s independence. While political pressure on the Fed is increasing, financial markets continue to serve as the strongest check on any risks to its neutrality. If policymakers push too hard, the bond market will quickly respond, reminding us that global markets—not politics—set the real limits.

4. Global Trade Realignment: Canada Shifts Away from U.S. Tariffs
One of the most significant shifts in global trade is the divergence between the U.S. and Canada, especially in the electric vehicle (EV) market. Canada’s decision to reduce tariffs on Chinese EVs from 100% to 6%, allowing 50,000 vehicles to enter the country, signals a realignment of economic alliances. China now produces the world’s most affordable EVs—priced around $9,000—posing a major competitive challenge to North American automakers. This change reflects the continued breakdown of post-WWII economic structures and the rise of new global economic blocs.

5. A Stronger Spring Housing Market: The Opportunity for Real Estate Professionals
Perhaps the most exciting news for our industry is the expected strength of the U.S. housing market this spring. Dr. Rossell reports that home sales are rising, prices are remaining moderate, and interest rates are easing, making this a favorable environment for both buyers and sellers. With steady job conditions and strong millennial demand, the spring housing market looks poised for growth. Homeowner turnover is also normalizing, even among those holding ultra-low pandemic-era mortgage rates. This, in turn, will gradually improve inventory. With momentum building, real estate professionals should take this opportunity to sharpen their skills and enhance client engagement.

Seizing the Moment
With these insights in mind, the outlook for real estate professionals is optimistic. The combination of a strengthening housing market, easing interest rates, and a dynamic global economy means 2026 is a year full of opportunities for those ready to lead.

For all your real estate needs in the U.S. Virgin Islands and beyond, reach out to us at Seaglass Properties. Our team is ready to help you navigate this exciting market.

Call us today at 340-715-7772 or visit Seaglass Properties for more information.

Learn more about Dr. Rossell here: https://www.cpa.com/speakers/marci-rossell