1. A “Selective Squeeze” Is Shaping the Economy

Dr. Rossell described the current U.S. and global environment as a “selective squeeze,” with uneven impacts across the economy. Two key forces are driving this dynamic: higher oil and gas prices and the growing impact of AI on labor markets, contributing to slower hiring.

Rising energy costs continue to affect sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, while today’s more service- and technology-driven economy leaves some workers less directly affected. At the same time, the U.S.’s role as a net oil producer means some regions are benefiting from higher prices.

As a result, economic conditions vary widely: younger workers and those in energy-dependent regions are feeling more strain, while others are seeing fewer direct impacts.

2. Inflation is Climbing Again

Inflation has jumped from near the Fed’s 2% target to roughly 3.8%, driven largely by higher oil prices — and those increases are spreading into core inflation beyond just energy.

The squeeze is hitting consumers hardest, especially those with lower incomes or higher debt. The silver lining: employment remains relatively stable. This isn’t a job-loss recession — it’s a cost-of-living crunch.

3. The Housing Market: Still Moving, But Uneven

Higher energy prices are raising construction costs — fuel surcharges, materials, everything — which limits new housing supply and keeps prices elevated.

First-time buyers are feeling it most. New construction tends to be farther from job centers, and with mortgage rates also rising, affordability is genuinely challenging for cost-sensitive buyers. But buyers with strong equity positions or investment gains? They’re still active. The market isn’t frozen — it’s just split.

For St. Croix specifically, inventory constraints are nothing new. If you’ve been waiting to list, this is still a favorable environment for sellers.

4. AI is Changing Work — and That’s Good News for Real Estate

Dr. Rossell sees AI as a genuine productivity driver, pushing U.S. economic growth from about 1.8% to 2.8%. But here’s what’s interesting: as routine tasks get automated, work is shifting toward trust, verification, and relationships.

That’s exactly what real estate is built on. The human side of this business — understanding a client’s needs, navigating a negotiation, knowing a neighborhood — isn’t going anywhere. If anything, it’s becoming more valuable.

5. Oil Prices Are the Wildcard for the Global Economy

Prices have climbed from around $60 to $100 per barrel. The U.S. and China are releasing strategic reserves to stabilize things, but those are temporary measures. Even if current geopolitical tensions eased tomorrow, Dr. Rossell says it would take six to eight months for oil markets to fully normalize.

The pressure is especially heavy on major oil-importing economies like China, Japan, and India. Energy prices will remain a central factor in global economic conditions for the months ahead.

What This Means for You

The market is moving — it’s just moving differently depending on your situation. If you’re a buyer with a strong financial footing, opportunities are there. If you’re a seller, demand from well-positioned buyers remains solid.

As always, the Sea Glass Properties team is here to help you navigate whatever the market brings. Reach out anytime — we’re your local experts.

Economic insights provided by Dr. Marci Rossell, Chief Economist, Leading Real Estate Companies of the World®. Webinar recorded May 15, 2026. Economic conditions may have changed since the date of recording. Equal Housing Opportunity.