We received a couple of reports on employment levels last week. The ADP Private Payroll report continued to show gains in hiring in the private sector. Their monthly gauge came in at 110K which was much better than market expectations of 101K.
In a separate report, the national Unemployment Rate fell from 9.1% to 9.0%. The total non-farm payroll gains were 80K which was below market expectations. However, the prior period was revised upward significantly.
Bright spots: Professional and business services up 562K in 2011. Hotel and restaurants up 344K this year. Health Care up 313K for the year. Retail Trade up 156K this year. And mining jobs are up 152K during the year.
What’s not doing well? Construction, government, financial services, insurance and real estate.
ales of new homes rose in September after four straight monthly declines.
Obviously, housing demand is very closely tied to employment levels. While employment levels still have a long way to go, there is some improvement which is a positive for housing.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +12 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates lower. This reversed the recent trend of week after week of higher rates.
We had some decent economic data such as better than expected unemployment levels which would normally drive mortgage rates upward. But fears and concerns over Greece and the European Union caused investors to pour money into bonds which temporarily pushed mortgage rates downward.
Previously, Germany and France had worked out a package deal with the rest of the EU members to bailout Greece. But last week, the Prime Minister of Greece stated that he wanted the Greek citizens to have a vote on if they should accept the bailout. If that did happen, there is no way that the citizens would vote for approval and essentially sink the deal.
Now, we understand that the Prime Minister of Greece has stated that he will step down and that the new government will approve the deal without a public vote. It is amazing how one little country can impact rates so much.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises: www.vimortgage.com
Date Time Economic Release
31-Oct 9:45 Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index
1-Nov 10:00 Construction Spending (MoM)
1-Nov 10:00 ISM Manufacturing
1-Nov 10:00 ISM Prices Paid
1-Nov 17:00 Total Vehicle Sales
2-Nov 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
2-Nov 8:15 ADP Employment Change
2-Nov 10:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks change
2-Nov 12:30 Fed Interest Rate Decision
2-Nov 12:30 FOMC Minutes
2-Nov 14:15 Fed’s Press Conference
3-Nov 8:30 Continuing Jobless Claims
3-Nov 8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
3-Nov 8:30 Nonfarm Productivity
3-Nov 8:30 Unit Labor Costs
3-Nov 10:00 Factory Orders
3-Nov 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing
4-Nov 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
4-Nov 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
4-Nov 8:30 Average Weekly Hours
4-Nov 8:30 Nonfarm Payrolls
4-Nov 8:30 Unemployment Rate
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
Schaffer Mortgage Corporation
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